A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
